The trauma of foreclosure or impending foreclosure has hit home for nearly 1.4 million homeowners so far this year, maintaining the nearly 91 percent year to date increase versus the last year. That’s according to the latest numbers from California-based ForeclosureS.com, which has been analyzing and publishing real estate and foreclosure data for more than 15 years.
For the month of October nationwide 54,418 REO (Real Estate Owned by lenders, newly foreclosed homes) filings were reported to ForeclosureS.com (up nearly 24 percent over the 43,941 September filings). A total of 128,019 pre-foreclosure filings were reported for October (up nearly 31 percent over 97,984 September’s filings).
These are grim numbers for the hundreds of thousands of homeowners trapped by rising mortgage payments, stagnant home prices, and tightened credit markets. “But all is not gloom,” says Alexis McGee, president of ForeclosureS.com, and author of “The Foreclosures.com Guide to Investing: Making Huge Profits Investing in Pre-Foreclosures Without Selling Your Soul” (John Wiley, 2007).
“However, remember that in September nationwide both REO filings (43,941 versus 55,952) and pre-foreclosures filings (97,984 versus 117,694) were down over August (16.75 percent and 21.47 percent respectively). When you average September and October filings, you find that pre-foreclosure filings have actually leveled off (down 4 percent) since August (113,001 current versus 117,694 August) and REO’s have actually dropped significantly (down 12 percent) from the high August filings (49,179 current versus 55,952 August).”
“Although tens of thousands of other homeowners are `in foreclosure’ most have not lost their home to foreclosure, as they have found solutions to their mortgage woes, ranging from workouts through lenders or other private and public organizations to rising home prices that make refinancing and home sales plausible, and growing local and national economies,” adds McGee.
Just last week, the U.S. Commerce Department reported the nation’s economy grew at a faster than expected 3.9 percent in the third quarter. Combine that with the 3.8 percent second-quarter GDP, and our economy is experiencing the strongest national growth rate in four years. And the Labor Department just reported that the economy turned out 166,000 new jobs in October vs. the 80,000 consensus forecasted. All that has happened under the cloud of the subprime mortgage industry meltdown!”
No matter the hype you hear the pattern of foreclosure and pre-foreclosure filings that climb month in and month out in every state has been broken, says McGee. “Overall national foreclosure-related numbers may sound high, but the 91 percent year over year increase is in relation to historic base lows. In addition, every month there’s a bit of good news on the foreclosure front. Individual states and regions are reporting flat or dropping numbers of foreclosure and pre-foreclosure filings. That’s sometimes a tough-to-see reality amid what can be overwhelming numbers. For some areas the worst of the foreclosure crisis could be over,” adds McGee.
On a regional basis in October versus September, ForeclosureS.com reports REO filings (homes actually lost to foreclosure) were:
- Southeast: Up 22 percent (13,754 October vs. 10,726 September vs. 12,588 August);
- Southwest: Up 21 percent (23,717 October vs. 18,649 September vs. 21,286 August);
- Midwest: Up 17 percent (13,731 October vs. 11,445 September vs. 13,608 August);
- Other States: Up 12 percent, which include Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, and Utah (657 October vs. 576 September vs. 5,571 August);
- Northeast: No change (2,559 October vs. 2,545 September vs. 2,899 August).
“Worth repeating: Although October REO filings look high compared to September, when September and October filings are averaged you will see that overall REO filings have dropped significantly (12 percent) from August levels” adds McGee.
On a per-capita basis year-to-date REO filings nationally and regionally are up (except in the Other States region), according to analysis of ForeclosureS.com’s data base of more than 3.5 million listings. But some states–including a few that have in the past been hard-hit by foreclosures — actually have fewer homeowners per capita that have lost their homes to REO foreclosure so far this year. Those states are:
- Colorado (10.4 REO filings for every 1,000 households this year so far vs. 18.9 in the same period a year ago).
- Tennessee (7.2 filings per 1,000 households year to date compared with 8.3 a year ago).
- Indiana (10.1 filings so far this year vs. 10.5 per 1,000 households during the same time 2006).
- Pennsylvania (2.6 filings per 1,000 year to date compared with 3 filings per 1,000 the same time a year ago).
- Oklahoma (6.4 filings per 1,000 households so far this year vs. 7.4 a year ago).
- South Carolina (4.2 filings for every 1,000 households year to date vs. 5.7 the same time period a year ago).
- Utah (2.7 filings per 1,000 households this year vs. 4.9 a year ago).
- Massachusetts (statistically insignificant numbers of filings this year vs. 0.2 filings per 1,000 households during the same time last year).
- North Carolina (unchanged at 6 REO filings for every 1,000 households).
On a regional basis in October versus September, ForeclosureS.com reports pre-foreclosure filings (homes in foreclosure, but not lost to) were:
- Southeast: Up 39 percent (39,976 October vs. 24,361 September vs. 33,998 August);
- Other States: Up 37 percent, which include Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, and Utah (1,932 October vs. 1,212 September vs. 1,607 August);
- Midwest: Up 20 percent (16,666 October vs. 13,380 September; 16,734 August);
- Southwest: Up 17 percent (53,002 October vs. 43,923 September; 50,075 August);
- Northeast: Up 8 percent (16,443 October vs. 15,108 September vs. 15,279 August);
“Reminder: Although October pre-foreclosure filings look high compared to September, when September and October filings are averaged you will see that overall pre-foreclosure filings have leveled off (down 4 percent) from August levels” adds McGee.
All pre-foreclosures, however, do not end up as foreclosures, reminds McGee. “Don’t believe all the dire talk and hype about foreclosures coming out of Washington, D.C., either,” says McGee. “A lot of it includes exaggerated and misleading numbers.”
For example, one recent congressional report talks about 2 million more households that will be lost to foreclosure in the next two years and that those homes represent about $100 billion in housing wealth. Jay Brinkman, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association last month called those numbers a big exaggeration.
“Even if those numbers were true–and they’re not,” adds McGee, “$100 billion is small when you consider that the outstanding total U.S. mortgage debt is approximately $10 trillion.”
Looking closer at more October filing numbers from ForeclosureS.com:
– Top 10 States pre-foreclosure filings by per-capita this year (though October):
State Filings Per Capita
Nevada 30,276 4.05 %
Florida 181,370 2.86 %
Arizona 38,954 2.05 %
Colorado 32,819 2.04 %
Illinois 74,323 1.89 %
California 214,499 1.86 %
New Jersey 55,281 1.80 %
Utah 8,700 1.36 %
Georgia 31,134 1.21 %
Texas 62,344 1.09 %
– Nevada leads the nation in actual number of pre-foreclosure filings and per capita so far this year– 40.5 pre-foreclosures filings per 1,000 households or 30,276 filings, up a whopping 106.63 percent over last year.
– Top 10 Counties pre-foreclosure filings by number of filings this year:
Nationwide Preforeclosures
County Households January February March April May June
Cook, IL 1,974,181 4,261 4,451 5,098 5,325 5,435 2,537
Los Angeles, CA 3,133,774 3,054 3,317 3,746 3,458 4,290 3,287
Miami-Dade, FL 776,774 2,105 3,040 3,037 3,336 4,036 2,445
Broward, FL 654,445 1,933 1,929 2,985 2,373 1,992 1,434
Maricopa, AZ 1,132,886 1,407 1,519 1,988 1,641 2,197 1,848
Clark, NV 512,253 1,922 1,905 2,813 2,029 2,567 2,568
Riverside, CA 506,218 2,127 1,896 2,397 2,115 2,461 2,281
San Bernardino, CA 528,594 1,546 1,624 1,724 1,607 1,946 1,771
Palm Beach, FL 474,175 1,350 1,050 2,236 1,408 1,768 1,127
San Diego, CA 994,677 1,267 1,347 1,583 1,396 1,594 1,580
Nationwide Preforeclosures
County July August September October Totals Per
Capita
Cook, IL 3,164 4,559 2,746 4,786 42,362 2.15 %
Los Angeles, CA 4,399 6,305 4,542 5,218 41,616 1.33 %
Miami-Dade, FL 3,604 6,417 1,883 4,821 34,724 4.47 %
Broward, FL 3,682 5,276 2,893 3,713 28,210 4.31 %
Maricopa, AZ 2,581 3,286 2,875 7,595 26,937 2.38 %
Clark, NV 2,665 3,590 2,420 3,794 26,273 5.13 %
Riverside, CA 2,738 3,645 3,158 3,328 26,146 5.16 %
San Bernardino, CA 2,261 2,551 2,437 2,394 19,861 3.76 %
Palm Beach, FL 2,546 2,642 1,602 2,778 18,507 3.90 %
San Diego, CA 1,751 2,194 1,984 2,319 17,015 1.71 %
– Top 10 Counties pre-foreclosure filings by per-capita this year:
Nationwide Preforeclosures
County Households January February March April May June
Lee, FL 188,599 314 1,004 1,146 840 1,123 1,054
Pinal, AZ 61,364 227 184 372 258 322 268
Osceola, FL 60,977 248 183 334 268 287 243
Riverside, CA 506,218 2,127 1,896 2,397 2,115 2,461 2,281
Clark, NV 512,253 1,922 1,905 2,813 2,029 2,567 2,568
Flagler, FL 21,294 32 25 144 70 227 93
Saint Lucie, FL 76,933 211 186 381 250 309 311
Kendall, IL 18,798 101 83 53 166 91 109
Boone, IL 14,597 11 43 22 258 23
Miami-Dade, FL 776,774 2,105 3,040 3,037 3,336 4,036 2,445
Nationwide Preforeclosures
County July August September October Totals Per
Capita
Lee, FL 1,330 1,167 1,554 2,088 11,620 6.16 %
Pinal, AZ 392 454 349 512 3,338 5.44 %
Osceola, FL 368 355 306 612 3,204 5.25 %
Riverside, CA 2,738 3,645 3,158 3,328 26,146 5.16 %
Clark, NV 2,665 3,590 2,420 3,794 26,273 5.13 %
Flagler, FL 108 156 56 162 1,073 5.04 %
Saint Lucie, FL 408 439 477 691 3,663 4.76 %
Kendall, IL 63 60 59 104 889 4.73 %
Boone, IL 10 8 239 42 656 4.49 %
Miami-Dade, FL 3,604 6,417 1,883 4,821 34,724 4.47 %
– Top 10 States REO filings by per-capita this year (though October):
State Filings Per Capita
Nevada 10,703 1.45 %
Michigan 28,908 1.38 %
Georgia 26,437 1.28 %
Louisiana 8,274 1.13 %
Colorado 16,693 1.05 %
Indiana 10,121 1.01 %
Missouri 14,440 1.00 %
Ohio 37,817 0.93 %
Arizona 16,993 0.89 %
Texas 53,734 0.89 %
– Nevada with 14.5 REO filings per 1,000 households in the state (10,672 filings); Elko County leads their state in filings per capita–38.9 filings per 1,000 households (608 filings), down 24.02 percent from a year ago.
– Top 10 Counties REO filings by number of filings this year:
County Households January February March April May June
Los Angeles, CA 3,133,774 579 558 809 918 1,260 1,092
Harris, TX 1,205,516 1,995 402 1,852 1,165 1,128 770
Cook, IL 1,974,181 696 828 1,065 970 1,140 1,307
Riverside, CA 506,218 487 434 689 757 899 1,178
Maricopa, AZ 1,132,886 345 501 624 531 694 682
Cuyahoga, OH 571,457 618 785 946 948 844 943
Clark, NV 512,253 568 457 882 641 827 1,031
Dallas, TX 807,621 685 178 761 1,418 356 629
San Bernardino, CA 528,594 258 291 438 456 569 548
San Diego, CA 994,677 370 441 48 527 859 692
Nationwide REOs
County July August September October Totals Per
Capita
Los Angeles, CA 1,295 1,575 1,264 2,130 11,480 0.37 %
Harris, TX 2,204 956 539 11,011 0.91 %
Cook, IL 1,020 1,315 800 1,058 10,199 0.52 %
Riverside, CA 1,212 1,369 1,193 1,534 9,752 1.93 %
Maricopa, AZ 906 1,143 916 3,205 9,547 0.84 %
Cuyahoga, OH 938 1,021 803 938 8,784 1.54 %
Clark, NV 1,041 1,043 1,214 1,030 8,734 1.71 %
Dallas, TX 1,218 326 1,226 1,229 8,026 0.99 %
San Bernardino, CA 1,325 818 902 1,002 6,607 1.25 %
San Diego, CA 669 853 723 960 6,581 0.66 %
– Top 10 Counties REO filings by per-capita this year:
Nationwide REOs
County Households January February March April May June
Valencia, NM 22,681 13 12 15 9 23 6
Mohave, AZ 62,809 165 1,091 163 49 264 392
Hood, TX 16,176 57 9 306 17 71 30
Bastrop, TX 20,097 33 67 12 24 77 90
Tangipahoa, LA 36,558 13 107 49 17 65 39
Modoc, CA 3,784 7 1 4 4 8 64
Garland, AR 37,813 19 13 25 262 293 127
Elbert, CO 6,770 8 3 27 34 29 14
Weld, CO 63,247 260 467 397 595 11 15
Newton, GA 21,997 36 50 17 24 88 89
Nationwide REOs
County July August September October Totals Per
Capita
Valencia, NM 994 759 21 17 1,869 8.24 %
Mohave, AZ 125 166 244 133 2,792 4.45 %
Hood, TX 29 17 25 19 580 3.59 %
Bastrop, TX 47 172 104 79 705 3.51 %
Tangipahoa, LA 853 26 27 19 1,215 3.32 %
Modoc, CA 9 3 11 5 116 3.07 %
Garland, AR 254 9 29 56 1,087 2.87 %
Elbert, CO 27 14 25 10 191 2.82 %
Weld, CO 15 3 5 10 1,778 2.81 %
Newton, GA 44 73 98 98 617 2.80 %
The Truth about Foreclosure Investing: Check your favorite book source for Alexis McGee’s new book: The ForeclosureS.com Guide to Investing in Pre-foreclosures Without Selling Your Soul, John Wiley and Sons , and coming soon is McGee’s second book, The Foreclosures.com Guide Advanced Investing Techniques You Won’t Learn Anywhere Else (Wiley, March 2008).
About ForeclosureS.com: Sacramento-based ForeclosureS.com, publisher of foreclosure property information for more than two decades, has more than 3.5 million listings of current foreclosure filings covering nearly 1,500 major U.S. counties. More Here.
To ensure accuracy, ForeclosureS.com bases its statistics on the numbers of formal notices filed against a property in the foreclosure process. In some states that can mean up to three filings against one property–notice of default, notice of foreclosure auction, and notice of REO–after a property has gone to foreclosure auction and a bank or lender takes possession of a property. In other states, it’s only two filings–auction notice and REO notice. Whatever the case, the same property can be counted multiple times, and inaccurately skew the numbers. To avoid that, ForeclosureS.com reports only two sets of numbers, Pre-foreclosure (filings before foreclosure) and REO (after foreclosure) filings.
